Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Hazem Hassan🔸's avatar

Small nitpick on the NYC police study: "5-7% crime reduction" sounded interesting (I was going to tweet about the study haha) but it felt too good to be true, so I looked into it and found this article: https://datacolada.org/101

Apparently the statistically significant reduction (6.9%) is for crime within 250 ft during the first 3 months (p=.036). Crime within 65 ft (the preregistered distance!) gave p>.2 for all 9 duration choices (see Fig 2 in the linked article).

The paper tested 81 distance-duration combinations (65 ft to 750 ft, 1 to 9 months), and 16 were statistically significant, which appears promising; however, the linked article found that if the p=.036 result were a false positive, there would be a 43% chance of getting at least 16 statistically significant results across the 81 combinations.

So I think the evidence for a 5-7% crime reduction from such an intervention appears stronger than it actually is. Interesting article, though-- thanks for sharing!

Charles Good's avatar

Fascinating topic. Parasocial relationships may be one-sided, but their influence is not. The people we follow can shape what we notice, value, buy, and even how we see ourselves, often without us realizing it. Understanding that influence is increasingly important in a world where attention is constantly in demand.

1 more comment...

No posts

Ready for more?